Timelines that matter

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$4 mcf henry hub isn't going to happen out 5 years.  India is the lowballer in se asia and it has almost gotten them into trouble.  They need big lng and others outbid them.  Nevertheless there's several dynamics in US nat gas.  First, there is a geometric drop in productiion from horizontal drilling, so as time passes, more well have to be drilled to produce the same amount.   Second, The fraking is expensive and companies are going more into debt to drill.   I would say $4.50 per mcf will be on the lower end of 2014 pricing.  And it rises from there looking out five years.  That's my take and as it gets costlier to produce, the price of nat gas is going to edge higher to offset the costs.  This also brings into question the reported $10 per mcf of the recent Russian gas to China, also looking out a number of years to get into that production.  IOC is, and should be in a sweet spot costwise in global lng cost and production.