Part of Hession rework of tbe drilling program may have been drill more wells at the same time. Odds of success improve with the higher number of wells drilled. It is interesting to reflect back on Elk 3 which hit water and gas and was off to the side of the reservoir rock they were looking for. My point is the reservoir rock may be there but your chosen area to drill for it may be off.
As to which wells will hit this time or not and their odds I defer to what PET has written . He sees good odds for all 3 wells. They would not be drilling at these locations without good cause . A discovery at Wahoo would do the most for the stock price is my take. If we hit the right rock it would confirm the Miocene reef theory and it's adjacency to Port Moresby would help with its monetization. We just have to wait and see based on the volumn many are willing to wait.