The last 30 days

[Getitrt2]

Recap of Macquarie Report 6/24/14: 1. Sum of Parts Valuation US$ 82.51 2. 12-month target US$ 80.00 (U$80/sh IOC price target is set at a ~3% discount to our sum-of-parts valuation of U$82.51/sh) 3. Share price reflects a ~65% risking for a 2 train, 7mtpa LNG development 4. Valuation could drift significantly higher over coming months 5. FID on Antelope LNG could add ~U$22/sh 6. Further U$42/sh added if all four proposed exploration wells are successful (US$10.50/sh per successful well) 7. Valuations assume Elk/Antelope resource of 7.1tcfe 8. Value IOC’s interest in Elk/Antelope at~U$37.85/sh based on a 70% risking; 9. Value IOC’s exploration prospects at ~U$12/sh for the current drilling program; 10. Future resource and milestone payments and government back-in payments adds ~U$14/sh; 11. Refining and distribution segments at ~U$17/sh (pre-sale share valuation) 12. Net cash position and net cash position detracts ~U$2/sh 13. Value IOC’s upstream E&P business at ~U$68/sh (includes above 8-10) 13. Stripping out the refining & distribution segments along with a potential future TOTAL payment, we estimate IOC is trading on an EV/2C multiple of just U$4.7/boe, which represents a significant 37% discount. (Important!) 14.The recent refinancing of the U$250m bridge facility with a larger U$300m facility is positive. With such a large syndicate of banks participating (a further two banks participated in addition to the original eight banks) lenders are clearly positioning themselves to participate in a more material project financing facility for an Elk/Antelope development. (This is a very significant point.)

Nice little summary of some of the data and comments, but keep in mind these are some bullet points with little explanation from a comprehensive 30-page report.  There is even a table of potential NAVs for a wide range of E/A resource estimates and possible Antelope Deep sizes.  There is a separate "Macquarie Report" thread with other information and a link, of course.