11-28-2014, 11:35 PM
The Canadian oil-sands frenzy that led to $265 billion of investments in less than a decade won’t immediately stop with $75 crude. Two years from now is another matter. Oil-sands projects are multibillion-dollar investments made upfront to allow many years of output, unlike competing U.S. shale wells that require constant injections of capital. It’s future expansion that’s at risk. “Once you start a project it’s like a freight train: you can’t stop it,” said Laura Lau, a Toronto-based portfolio manager at Brompton Funds. Current oil prices will have producers considering “whether they want to sanction a new one.”
Canadian oil-sands industry’s expansion wavers with $75/bbl crude
Oil at $75/bbl won’t affect U.S. output from shale much because investments in wells and production have already been made, said Andrew Liveris, chairman and CEO of Dow Chemical Co. Some U.S. shale producers are already hurt by the drop in oil prices, though Dow, based in Midland, Michigan, sells enough different products that it can withstand lower crude, Liveris, the head of the largest U.S. chemical maker, said at a conference in Dubai.
Oil at $75/bbl won’t shut in much U.S. shale, Dow’s Liveris says
New York-traded crude oil will probably drop another $30 in the next two years as long-term cycles in commodities and currencies converge, no matter what happens at this week’s OPEC meeting and Iran nuclear talks, according to brokerage United-ICAP.
Oil seen dropping another $30 by ICAP on commodity, dollar cycle
OPEC's contentious decision to keep its production target, leaving the market with a supply glut, could trigger a wave of debt defaults by U.S. shale oil producers, warn analysts.