DISCOVERY @ BOBCAT

[CAC]

*********

So, are we celebrating again this afternoon or was that just yesterday? 

On a more serious note, with a current market cap at 2.34B...and TOT knowing they are likely to pay that much just for their percentage of E/A, what logical reason would there be for TOT not to want to pay double that for all of IOC?  Add a billion or two to that number for the potential outside of E/A.  I truly don't understand how they haven't offered $120 per share for this company.

It seems there are only two possible answers to that.  First, Total doesn't believe the resource numbers.  Second, Total believes making a bid would only start a bidding war for IOC, a war they might not be prepared to win.

Maybe they are waiting for the arbitration ruling to come down.  Maybe EVERYBODY is waiting for the arbitration ruling to come down, everybody that is except those disinterested because they believe IOC's other prospective limestone reservoirs are filled with mud and not gas " border="0" class="smilie" src="http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/images/smilies/dodgy.gif" />

After all, why else would the only information related to well productivity released by the company be a picture of a flare not much bigger than my barbeque grill produces after I forget to watch the chicken?

******

Hmmm.  You might be on to something with option number one.  TOT paid a healthy chunk up front, but can still avoid the bulk of their payments to IOC if the appraisal wells don't go as IOC expects them to go.  So TOT actually hasn't agreed to pay "billions" yet.   I've been assuming certain things about the E/A discovery (and the money that will flow from it) whereas TOT isn't making those assumptions at this time (for purposes of a buyout) and the market certainly isn't making them for PPS valuation.