I know negative speculation is frowned upon, but since you asked a direct question, I'll answer. If there is an explainable reason at all, I would think it's less likely that it is "well-related" or "arbitration-related"...and more likely that someone thinks Total might "table" the plans for a new plant until oil prices rebound."]
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No problem with that as I actually mentioned it myself already, but it doesn't seem probable to me. LNG demand is still there and a lot of more expensive projects face more urgent questions about their economic viability. What is true is that the project could be less profitable if the energy price slump continues, but it has to continue for a really long term in order to achieve that effect. However, market perceptions could simply be: low energy prices lead to more uncertainty over projects viability, hence sell-off.
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That makes sense, but the fact that other companies are "worse off" (or less likely to proceed with their projects) doesn't necessarily increase IOC's chances of proceeding. It could be that all of them get put on hold. The best team to miss the playoffs still misses the playoffs. That being said, I assume TOT has to pay us for the gas even if no plant is built so they must have a back-up plan in mind to make it profitable. I assume that would involve selling to XOM...unless of course XOM decides they want to wait on a third train too. It's all speculation. I am just searching for some answer that sounds more plausible to me than "market fluctuations" or "short manipulation".