Greece, not again?

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The effectiveness of the Grexit threat depends on two conditions. First, Germany and other eurozone members must regard Grexit as a significant risk to themselves. Second, a return to the drachma must offer the prospect that the Greek economy will eventually do better on its own than in the currency union (and under the existing economic program). In the absence of the first condition, the eurozone will respond to Greece by saying, “Be our guest, leave.” In the absence of the second condition, Greece’s threat will not be credible.

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