OPEC, for some quiet moments..

[admin]

Ships carrying oil from Mexico docked in South Korea this year for the first time in more than two decades as the global fight for market share intensifies. Latin American producers are providing increasing amounts of heavy crude to bargain-hungry Asian refiners in a challenge to Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter and the region’s dominant supplier.

The Saudis Are Losing Their Lock on Asian Oil Sales - Bloomberg Business

Because contrary to popular belief there is ”plenty of storage, but fear and misperception will likely prevail near term,” wrote Morgan Stanley MS +0.25% refining analyst Evan Calio in an in-depth report last week. Calio and his colleagues figure that tank farm utilization will top out near 72% in May at more than 500 million barrels in storage — high enough to continue supporting bearish sentiment, but not enough to bring about a complete collapse in U.S. crude oil benchmarks.

Busting The Myth Of Oil Storage Hitting 'Tank Tops' - Forbes

Iran’s oil current production of 2.8 million bpd is down by about 1.1 million bpd from the pre-sanction average of 3.9 million bpd. Meanwhile, Iran’s net crude oil exports are currently near 1.2 million bpd, down by about 1.2 million bpd from the average of 2.4 million bpd seen from 1995-2006. If a final agreement is reached by end-June, then sanctions would be lifted “when Iran complies with the terms of the agreement,” which Secretary of State Kerry said could take 6-12 months. Iran’s oil sanctions could therefore be at least partially lifted by the end of this year. But even worse, the market already knows that Iran has anywhere from 7-35 million barrels of oil in storage, which means that a flood of oil could be quickly released when sanctions are lifted, followed by a steady ramp-up in production and exports. World oil prices are likely in for another big leg down if the Iran agreement remains on track.

Will an Iranian Nuclear Deal Sink the Oil Market? - Focus on Funds - Barrons.com

But there remains ways to go in this little drama. It remains unclear whether Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be successful in his mission to scuttle the deal or if the U.S. Congress will put up successful barriers to an accord. If a final agreement is reached in June, there needs to be a subsequent lifting of sanctions, which could take six to 12 months. Then, there needs to be a recovery in Iran’s investment-starved oil industry. In short, it could be 2016 or later before Iranian crude becomes a major issue for the oil markets.

Will an Iranian Nuclear Deal Sink the Oil Market? - Focus on Funds - Barrons.com