02-17-2012, 07:18 PM
Welcome Supasage. Nice post.
Thanks for the sober overview of where and why IOC is, and for all to see it is most likely highly undervalued. IOC 'jus't needs the Gov't to not re-neg on it's PA amendment support, that triggers SD's, JVs and construction start for first gas 2014/15. I would only add/expand 1 angle, touched on in your #2.
#4
Somare Heart Attack.
A year ago we had a corrupt, dictatorial executive, Michael Somare, allowing IOC's move to the Gulf and raising shots with Phil at the EWC PFCA signing, rumblings of FLEX coming into the project and we appeared to be on our way with FIDs 2Q.
Then the heart attack, reported Shell bribe as PNG officials scrambled for their piece the 'Somare way'. Potape, Duma, Abal, O'Neill, and 'Project Zebra' would have not been heard from if Somare remained healthy. Since Sept. IOC's project was 'shelved', had expropriation threats, had Shell's bribe leaked, 2 PMs, a failed mutiny and another PNG Constitutional crisis.
IOC management has remained confident, OTakers have signed up and bonafide WSJ rumor of JKM bidder consortium.
I really believe the pps is a coiled spring and investors will unleash it with NEC approval. All else should come fast after as management has stated they and partners are ready to announce FIDs.
Now, for the NEC approval.....and hoping that back door is nailed shut.
Thanks for the sober overview of where and why IOC is, and for all to see it is most likely highly undervalued. IOC 'jus't needs the Gov't to not re-neg on it's PA amendment support, that triggers SD's, JVs and construction start for first gas 2014/15. I would only add/expand 1 angle, touched on in your #2.
#4
Somare Heart Attack.
A year ago we had a corrupt, dictatorial executive, Michael Somare, allowing IOC's move to the Gulf and raising shots with Phil at the EWC PFCA signing, rumblings of FLEX coming into the project and we appeared to be on our way with FIDs 2Q.
Then the heart attack, reported Shell bribe as PNG officials scrambled for their piece the 'Somare way'. Potape, Duma, Abal, O'Neill, and 'Project Zebra' would have not been heard from if Somare remained healthy. Since Sept. IOC's project was 'shelved', had expropriation threats, had Shell's bribe leaked, 2 PMs, a failed mutiny and another PNG Constitutional crisis.
IOC management has remained confident, OTakers have signed up and bonafide WSJ rumor of JKM bidder consortium.
I really believe the pps is a coiled spring and investors will unleash it with NEC approval. All else should come fast after as management has stated they and partners are ready to announce FIDs.
Now, for the NEC approval.....and hoping that back door is nailed shut.