Greece, not again?

[admin]

The International Monetary Fund has warned Greece’s eurozone creditors that it is so far off course on its $172bn bailout programme that it risks losing vital IMF support unless lenders write off significant amounts of sovereign debt. (FT) The warning raises the prospect of the fund withholding some of the EUR7.2bn of bailout aid that Greece is desperately attempting to secure to avoid bankruptcy.

FirstFT (the new 6am Cut) | FT Alphaville

Greece has experienced an improved terms of trade over the last few years. But there is no sign of it translating into the sort of robust export growth, or business sector investment, that might enable the external sector to begin to pick up the huge slack in Greece’s economy. Whether that is because firms just aren’t competitive or because of rising uncertainty (or some combination of the two, as seems more likely) isn’t immediately clear. But note that these data go up only to 2014q4 – this was what things were looking like under the previous government and the old programme (for all its limitations). Any uncertainty has only become greater since then.

Greece: not exporting its way out of trouble | croaking cassandra

The eurozone's position on the Greek debt negotiations has not changed, and Athens must commit to its current bailout program before any debt relief can be considered, the head of the Eurogroup said on Friday.

The eurozone's position on Greek debt has not changed - Business Insider

The other economists who get a look in during these negotiations are at the IMF. Their position has always been problematic. It was they, partly through an inexplicable under estimation of the fiscal multiplier, who allowed the Troika to trash the Greek economy with austerity on an epic scale. They also foolishly allowed the rest of the Troika to believe that partial rather than full default would allow Greece to regain solvency. (For the details, see this short guide.) However, unlike their Troika colleagues, the IMF can admit and learn from its mistakes, rather than trying to cover them up. It is now reported to be telling the Eurozone finance ministers that they must write off more of Greece’s debt before the Fund will release more money.

mainly macro: The IMF, Greece and economic reality