(05-15-2015, 02:11 AM)Getitrt2 Wrote:
(05-14-2015, 09:02 PM)will2bgreat Wrote:The truth is IOC's stock price was down yesterday because of the lack of connectivity data in the long term flow test. I don't know why IOC didn't do this test first, but it was a big miss. Without this data, the short thesis remains alive and the shorts will continue to hang around.
Still patient.
Good luck longs.
Strongly disagree on the stock price and where they should be on the testing. The initial flow testing was done with various members of the JV and the government, and they show a chart from that and stated those results indicate a "high permeability reservoir with the ability to be a prolific producer". The full extended long-term test program now getting underway "will likely do more than the 1,200 hours of testing already done on E/A", and there are reasons why gauges are not yet in place and ready to go in other parts of the field. Check out the appraisal and exporation schedule. What is it you don't understand about "extended" and "long-term". They intend to do this correctly and thoroughly, and it will be complete before A6 is complete, or maybe even spudded. A minority of the shorts are still "alive" and "hanging around" doing their thing, but there is no longer any valid "short thesis" alive, except perhaps in the deluded minds of some still under-informed. Any of our industry experts think I've got something wrong here?
Getit -
I think the only thing you've got wrong (if I read you correctly) might be your implication that Will's thesis about the shorts' argument about connectivity, however misguided, has no traction. I think there could remain some traction for the argument at Yahoo even though I haven't been there in quite some time. Lots of gullible people on this planet with ideas that are hard to dislodge. There are many others who conclude that if an arguement exists then both sides must each have merit. It sure would be interesting to poll Yazoo readers on the question of connectivity.
The question in my mind is why they are doing the test at all. My current best thesis isn't to determine whether the reservoir is connected, but to help determine the nature of the connections. It isn't hard to imagine that the velocity of minute pressure changes in the other wells due to withdrawls at A5 gives clues to areas of greatest fracture and communication in the structure as a whole. This information in turn might provide valuable input to the decision of where to drill the additional production wells. Just speculation certainly, but it seems reasonable.
Looking forward next to hearing of the T3 spud, then the announcement of the design selection at the AGM. That design announcement, whenever it occurs, could move the needle if any design is selected that involves initial construction capacity above 8 MTPA.
Good luck to all....

