OPEC, for some quiet moments..

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The rally in crude oil is reviving the U.S. shale boom, threatening speculators who are the most bullish on prices since July. Money managers increased their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 3.9% in the seven days ended May 5, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s a level last seen toward the start of last year’s price crash. Short positions declined to the lowest this year.

Crude-oil bulls threatened as shale patch revives drilling plans

According to Cornerstone Analytics, demand is up some 1.7M/D in 1Q15 vs. initial estimates from others of less than 1M/D average rise for the year. So the price drop is clearly seeing a demand response. The recent monetary easing in rates and reserves by China will only help to increase demand further from here. Remember the cries that the oil “glut” was because of weak Asian demand (another in a long series of deceptions)? Cornerstone Analytics goes on to say this morning, that OPEC can’t meet its call and that will become self-evident as prices rise to $85 for Brent by years end.

Saudi Price War Strategy May Blow Up In Their Face | OilPrice.com

Saudi Arabia expanded its share of China’s oil market last month, outpacing rival producers as they compete to meet record demand from the world’s biggest energy consumer. China’s imports from the Middle East producer jumped 37% from a year earlier to the highest level since July 2013, according to customs data. The world’s biggest crude exporter was the No. 1 supplier to the Asian nation, accounting for 17.4% of its overseas purchases, up from 15.1% in March. The next three largest sellers—Russia, Iran and Angola—lost market share.

Saudi oil supply outpaces rivals in grab for record China demand

EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $61/b in 2015 and $70/b in 2016, $1/b higher and $5/b lower than in last month's STEO, respectively. Average WTI prices in 2015 and 2016 are expected to be $6/b and $5/b below Brent, respectively. The current values of futures and options contracts for December 2015 delivery suggest (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report) the market's expectations (at the 95% confidence interval) for WTI prices in that month range from $41/b to $97/b.

Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)