07-10-2015, 08:17 AM
Citi points out that the path to a Greek exit could still be long and bumpy, rather than a single spectacular event. There could be some kind of short-term loan that allows Greek banks to re-open soon, but falls far short of the hundreds of billions of euros Greece needs to pay its bills for the next several years. That could lead to a slow-motion Grexit that lasts for months. In Citi’s new base case, the process takes two to three years.
Markets are beginning to write off Greece - Yahoo Finance
Thomsen: First, let me be clear that Greece has made enormous progress in restoring fiscal sustainability. The fiscal adjustment in Greece has been extraordinary by any international comparison. Having entered the crisis with a deficit in double digits, Greece has not only achieved a primary surplus in just four years and ahead of schedule, but also now has the highest “cyclically-adjusted primary balance” in the euro area, that is, the highest underlying primary balance after accounting for the effect of the business cycle on revenues.
IMF Survey : Greece: Grounds for Cautious Optimism
One Greek jeweler even rejected a customer who wanted to buy approximately $1.1 million worth of merchandise because "he was more comfortable holding on to the jewels than having money in Greek banks," according to The Times.
Greek life during euro crisis - Business Insider
However, as the primary surplus targets are rising to 3 percent of GDP in 2015 and to 4.5 percent of GDP in 2016 and beyond in order to bring down the very high levels of public debt, additional efforts are needed. Simply relying on the projected economic recovery would not by itself be sufficient to achieve these targets.
IMF Survey : Greece: Grounds for Cautious Optimism
This is the sum of investments minus depreciation over time, taking 2000 as the starting point. We do not see structural weaknesses in Greece holding back the development of the capital stock. It grew rather more rapidly than the euro area average until the crisis, expanding by almost a quarter, and far faster than in Germany (where it started from a higher absolute level). Since the crisis the capital stock has shrunk, indicating that new investment has not kept up with depreciation.