02-17-2012, 08:37 PM
Sageo, I think that one of several battles being waged right now in the bidding for IOC. We have E/A with Mitsui pretty well entrenched and JAPEX very familiar with the formation and drilling results. Must feel pretty good about things with the "announcement" of the JKM consortium. And of course they most likely feel very good about T/B and what they've seen with the seismics. On most of their presentations IOC shows gathering lines that bring the wet gas to the area of EA (See slide 15 of the January 2012 IPAA Presentation). The lines from T/B show a couple of possible routes, but end up at the CSPs at E/A. So my guess is that JKM is also assuming they get T/B. Pet has also mentioned (I believe) that there could be the possibility of CSPs up at T/B depending on what's found there.
As you mention XOM/OSH are scouring for more NG to feed their additional trains. OSH is finding some small pools, but nothing like E/A or T/B. So I would guess for assurance purposes they are very interested in the whole pie; whether it's to feed their existing plant being built or to build in the Gulf to appease Kavo and take any excess to their plant. They also should be very interested in PL 236 as that gas could be fed most easily to their planned LNG plant.
Then we have Shell who would love to have it all also, but how they would develop the fields is anyone's guess, and what they are willing to pay is even more of a guess.
I would think these are the three most interested groups, and it's not to say that even if XOM does not get the whole things that they wouldn't still want to buy some conditioned or wet gas. That could also be a way to keep Shell at bay; have JKM be the SD partner and work out a deal with XOM for feedstock. Would be hard for PNG to force Shell if a deal like this were to be proposed.
As you mention XOM/OSH are scouring for more NG to feed their additional trains. OSH is finding some small pools, but nothing like E/A or T/B. So I would guess for assurance purposes they are very interested in the whole pie; whether it's to feed their existing plant being built or to build in the Gulf to appease Kavo and take any excess to their plant. They also should be very interested in PL 236 as that gas could be fed most easily to their planned LNG plant.
Then we have Shell who would love to have it all also, but how they would develop the fields is anyone's guess, and what they are willing to pay is even more of a guess.
I would think these are the three most interested groups, and it's not to say that even if XOM does not get the whole things that they wouldn't still want to buy some conditioned or wet gas. That could also be a way to keep Shell at bay; have JKM be the SD partner and work out a deal with XOM for feedstock. Would be hard for PNG to force Shell if a deal like this were to be proposed.