'Relker' pid='62949' datel Wrote:
'jft310' pid='62941' datel Wrote:I bet they wait on the wild card . They can borrow 70-80 percent of LNG plant build costs so cash for the build should be sufficient . I do not think they have enough cash to pay corporate overhead for 4 years or so and explore more of their acreage . Will require more debt and or an equity raise to bridge into cash flow or one heck of second sell down or several years from now a second certification. As far as amount of gas no one really cares about gross gas it just means nothing as in nada . Recoverable gas is what we get paid on at P-2 level and GCA and GLJ are based on recoverable gas . If we hear about 9.5 T number as some say it will be recoverable gas cause gross gas means nada .IOC corporate overhead roughly amounts to USD 0.1 B per year. I can not imagine that this will have a big effect on operation the coming 4 years:.
Cash flow coming 4 years:
Cash per 30.6 2015 0.5
- License payment E/A : 3.5 (the upper GLJ case is considered as the medium case by IOC)
- Already received license -0.4
- Equity investment JV -1.8
- Corporate overhead -0.4
- Drilling -0.9
Cash per 30.9.2019 0.5
Relker: We should be looking at costs from now until 2022 when there is cash flow from Papua LNG:
1. I think IOC's contribution to the project equity is more like $1.5 Billion = = = Add $0.3 Billion to your figure
2. You don't include any income from selling down other resources in the next few years - Triceratops, Raptor, Bobcat and Wahoo will all have partners = = = Add $1.0 Billion
3. You don't include corporate overheads and drilling costs for 3 additional years (startup will be in 2022) = = = Subtract $1.2 Billion
4. You don't include the Government's payment of suink costs when they take their 22.5% NET share of the project = = = Add $ 0.1 Billion
===> Net outcome is the same as your figure, but extended to 2022
MY BOTTOM LINE: AN ANNUAL CORPORATE OVERHEAD OF $100 MILLION (excluding drilling costs) IS FAR TOO HIGH