'CAC' pid='63913' datel Wrote:
'Gator' pid='63912' datel Wrote:[quote='2126' pid='63910' dateline='1445445065']
Some of the 'bad news' press releases in the last year:
IOC Discovery at Raptor 1 (11/14)
IOC Discovery at Bobcat 1 (12/14)
OSH Arbitration Claim Dismissed (2/15)
E/A Joint Venture Selects Sites (7/15)
Total Assumes Operatorship of E/A (7/15)
Antelope 5 Results Suggest High Quality Reef Extends West (8/15)
Antelope 4 Side Track 1 Spud (8/15)
Successful Flow Test at Triceratops 3 (9/15)
Second Rig Joins E/A Appraisal Work (10/15)All that and $39 will get you a share of IOC stock (which is down over 50% from the transformation deal.)
Most everything on that list is not important. The only thing that matters is certification payment; When and How much. Neither of which can be answered 23 months after the deal.
You even list "OSH Arbitration Claim Dismissed (2/15)". Arbitration and the delay that followed should never have happened.
You also list "Side Track 1 Spud" that is because there was a delay and "Second Rig Joins E/A" which is also the direct result of a delay.
Delays matter.
******
And I'm a little confused as to what the end-game is now. I've heard Hesion say he thinks there is 17T's outside of E/A (of course, JFT calls it 54T's) and that we need to "go find gas; monetize it; and repeat"...but then after the "Wahoo whiff" he now says that they are going to minimize exploration drilling in favor of a "cash-saving mode" instead. I'm not saying that either plan is right or wrong...just that they seem to be all over the map.
And they may "be all over the map" due to the $68 million payoff of the notes which is looming. Pure speculation but earlier this year there was some expectation here that these notes would simply be kicked down the road with a refinancing. However, with the Certification now moved/delayed until 2Q 2016 there may have been pushback and hesitation by lenders with the state of the industry right now. The "easy" money likely isn't as available these days. I agree with the move to contract operations in the current setting; just too bad things have been pushed back so far that further exploration outside PRL15 has been also kicked down the road.