10-28-2015, 09:46 PM
JFT I fully understand all of that; it's repeated and repeated here day after day. But also for over too years the world has been saying that "any day" inflation will rear its ugly head. Interest rates MUST rise as full employment pushes down the unemployment rate. That as the unemployment rate in the US drops below 6% we will see wage growth. Yet NONE of the traditional economic models predicted the current situation in the US. Not one. We have unemployment rates of 5.2% (yes I know the harping people are making about underemployment, etc. but today the U6 rate is down to 10%; a point where the argument really starts going away). All models at this point are not working.
I'm in the energy industry and I know the turmoil that is rippling through the industry. Traditional models are not working in this new global economic picture. We are in the middle of a huge global shift that everyone said was coming and when things shift in such a dramatic way through history, old models must be scrapped and it's a good long time before there's a high predictability again. Everyone assumes things in Asia will follow the West with their new middle class. But that may or may not happen. And in the mean time Europe, the US and Canada and other developed nations have the largest parts of their demographic economies falling out of the work force and becoming drains on those economies instead of driving them.
I hope like everyone else that for this investment the old model holds true. But if it does it'll been one of the very few that does. Ask Janet if she thinks what she is seeing and thinking is blowing her mind.
I'm in the energy industry and I know the turmoil that is rippling through the industry. Traditional models are not working in this new global economic picture. We are in the middle of a huge global shift that everyone said was coming and when things shift in such a dramatic way through history, old models must be scrapped and it's a good long time before there's a high predictability again. Everyone assumes things in Asia will follow the West with their new middle class. But that may or may not happen. And in the mean time Europe, the US and Canada and other developed nations have the largest parts of their demographic economies falling out of the work force and becoming drains on those economies instead of driving them.
I hope like everyone else that for this investment the old model holds true. But if it does it'll been one of the very few that does. Ask Janet if she thinks what she is seeing and thinking is blowing her mind.