12-22-2015, 01:19 PM
First, IOC is NOT an E&P Company, and should not be compared to that category of oil and gas companies. IOC's IR Department constantly invokes this fiction when challenged by shareholders. IOC dropped by 5+% while XOP dropped only 1%. XLE was up today, as was CHK.
Second, IOC continues to REFUSE to state how much gas they believe is in E/A. The market STILL assumes that there is 6.5 tcfe in-ground and that the Interim Resource Payment due from TOTAL will be US$353 Million. IOC Management and its IR Department have done absolutely NOTHING to refute the market's conclusions. AND ... we may not find out the Certification figures until 1Q2017.
Third, TOTAL is in total control of the story (or lack thereof) because they are themselves a company in deep donkey doo doo. The P/E ratio of their stock is 106.79 while that of XOM is 16.32. TOTAL earns $0.42 per share while XOM earns $4.73. TOTAL cannot fund their Dividend Payments if oil price stays low while they continue to invest. TOTAL simply decided many months ago not to spend ca$h money to develop the Papua LNG project until 2016 rolls around. Enough said on this subject and why TOTAL has slow-walked until now.
Fourth, IOC Management DOES NOT OWN ANY SHARES OF THE COMPANY so they don't give a flying $#!? whether the stock price drops into the TEEN$. Richard Chandler figured this out and exited stage left at $42+ per share. How did he figure this out? Perhaps he realized he was being lied to on the timelines.
So what's the story, Jerry?
Dr. Hession claims that the decisions to drill and drill some more will ultimately result in a much higher certification payment (perhaps quadruple) without jeopardizing the timeline for project FID and eventual startup/ production of LNG.
By having a much larger payment, IOC won't have to borrow any money to fund their 30% participation in the LNG project construction, which comes to a layout of about $1.5 Billion in cash.
No one in a position of Top Management will buy IOC shares while they try to implement this strategy because they know the trajectory of the PPS. Apparently Chris Finlayson and the rest of the BOD agree with this strategy; they too are waiting to buy shares.
IF it turns out IOC is correct, then it will be worth it for those who are shareholders at the end of 2016. IOC's PPS will rocket if they have $2.5 Billion in ca$h (from TOTAL as Interim Resource Payment) plus another $457 million (coming from TOTAL as FID Payment) plus a retained NET ownership of E/A on their Books of 3.4 tcfe.
We shareholders can't tell if that is a BIG IF or not? Will the certification indeed come in at 12+ tcfe instead of 6.5 tcfe? Is IOC GAMBLING or do they have a very good reason to expect this outcome?
The mumbo jumbo stated by IOC Management during CC's borders on what a third grader might say when questioned about his lack of fundamental mathematics knowledge - - -
Q: "What does one plus one equal, Johnny?"
A: "ERRRR .... That's a very good question Ms. Teacher. I'm not really sure about the answer, so I'll say this in response: We have a great third grade class here, and a great learning environment in your classroom, and a great team of classmates working hard to learn everything we possibly can when you teach us math. We'll continue to learn from you as we progress this school year, and maybe by the time we break for summer recess we'll be able to answer this difficult question you posed."
IF the wait ultimately results in a resource certification that is 5+ tcfe more than expected by the market, it means IOC gets $2.0+ Billion more than if E/A was certified at 6.5 tcfe.
For people who bought IOC shares at $60+ and had to sell (or decided to sell), the extended timeline has been an unmitigated disaster ... it has certainly been TRANSFORMATIONAL.
The issue is that IOC seemingly (and consistently and purposely) mislead the market about timelines for E/A drilling and ultimate certification. I don't buy into excuses that things happened that were unknown and out of IOC's control (perhaps they were indeed out of their control ... but NOT UNKNOWN).
IF IOC had told the truth to shareholders, I for one would have sold at $60 with the plan to buy shares back at $20 or below.
Remember a long time ago when the Citibank Anal-ist said IOC's timeline was rubbish? Someone apparently told him the truth!
I HOPE AND PRAY TO ALL WHO CAN INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME THAT THE CERTIFICATION IS 12+ tcfe, AND THAT IT COMES BEFORE THE END OF 2016.
Tell me ... why, as a shareholder, should I have to "hope and pray" that my investment was a good one?
Why should IOC shareholders have to end their posts by saying "GOOD LUCK TO LONGS"?
Second, IOC continues to REFUSE to state how much gas they believe is in E/A. The market STILL assumes that there is 6.5 tcfe in-ground and that the Interim Resource Payment due from TOTAL will be US$353 Million. IOC Management and its IR Department have done absolutely NOTHING to refute the market's conclusions. AND ... we may not find out the Certification figures until 1Q2017.
Third, TOTAL is in total control of the story (or lack thereof) because they are themselves a company in deep donkey doo doo. The P/E ratio of their stock is 106.79 while that of XOM is 16.32. TOTAL earns $0.42 per share while XOM earns $4.73. TOTAL cannot fund their Dividend Payments if oil price stays low while they continue to invest. TOTAL simply decided many months ago not to spend ca$h money to develop the Papua LNG project until 2016 rolls around. Enough said on this subject and why TOTAL has slow-walked until now.
Fourth, IOC Management DOES NOT OWN ANY SHARES OF THE COMPANY so they don't give a flying $#!? whether the stock price drops into the TEEN$. Richard Chandler figured this out and exited stage left at $42+ per share. How did he figure this out? Perhaps he realized he was being lied to on the timelines.
So what's the story, Jerry?
Dr. Hession claims that the decisions to drill and drill some more will ultimately result in a much higher certification payment (perhaps quadruple) without jeopardizing the timeline for project FID and eventual startup/ production of LNG.
By having a much larger payment, IOC won't have to borrow any money to fund their 30% participation in the LNG project construction, which comes to a layout of about $1.5 Billion in cash.
No one in a position of Top Management will buy IOC shares while they try to implement this strategy because they know the trajectory of the PPS. Apparently Chris Finlayson and the rest of the BOD agree with this strategy; they too are waiting to buy shares.
IF it turns out IOC is correct, then it will be worth it for those who are shareholders at the end of 2016. IOC's PPS will rocket if they have $2.5 Billion in ca$h (from TOTAL as Interim Resource Payment) plus another $457 million (coming from TOTAL as FID Payment) plus a retained NET ownership of E/A on their Books of 3.4 tcfe.
We shareholders can't tell if that is a BIG IF or not? Will the certification indeed come in at 12+ tcfe instead of 6.5 tcfe? Is IOC GAMBLING or do they have a very good reason to expect this outcome?
The mumbo jumbo stated by IOC Management during CC's borders on what a third grader might say when questioned about his lack of fundamental mathematics knowledge - - -
Q: "What does one plus one equal, Johnny?"
A: "ERRRR .... That's a very good question Ms. Teacher. I'm not really sure about the answer, so I'll say this in response: We have a great third grade class here, and a great learning environment in your classroom, and a great team of classmates working hard to learn everything we possibly can when you teach us math. We'll continue to learn from you as we progress this school year, and maybe by the time we break for summer recess we'll be able to answer this difficult question you posed."
IF the wait ultimately results in a resource certification that is 5+ tcfe more than expected by the market, it means IOC gets $2.0+ Billion more than if E/A was certified at 6.5 tcfe.
For people who bought IOC shares at $60+ and had to sell (or decided to sell), the extended timeline has been an unmitigated disaster ... it has certainly been TRANSFORMATIONAL.
The issue is that IOC seemingly (and consistently and purposely) mislead the market about timelines for E/A drilling and ultimate certification. I don't buy into excuses that things happened that were unknown and out of IOC's control (perhaps they were indeed out of their control ... but NOT UNKNOWN).
IF IOC had told the truth to shareholders, I for one would have sold at $60 with the plan to buy shares back at $20 or below.
Remember a long time ago when the Citibank Anal-ist said IOC's timeline was rubbish? Someone apparently told him the truth!
I HOPE AND PRAY TO ALL WHO CAN INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME THAT THE CERTIFICATION IS 12+ tcfe, AND THAT IT COMES BEFORE THE END OF 2016.
Tell me ... why, as a shareholder, should I have to "hope and pray" that my investment was a good one?
Why should IOC shareholders have to end their posts by saying "GOOD LUCK TO LONGS"?
Drivel Maven with Personality