Here is another one we're considering:
We like to think that most of the selling in China is now behind us so there is a good chance for a bounce now that we are at $41 and on support of the rising channel. However, two things are holding us back:
- Ctrip would suffer from a Chinese devaluation (which is why we preferred JKS, which would benefit)
- This years profit expectations are actually considerably lower than last year's, which we find both surprising and disappointing
Surprising because Ctrip has done a great deal of investing in their platform and are now supposed to reap the benefits from that, in a secular growing market. On top of that, there has been a great deal of consolidation in the industry, which should lead to better pricing power.