'jft310' pid='66583' datel Wrote:Stavros- could you give us more details on your comment about Yamal eventually being 5.5 mtpa per train . Are the units built out to that capacity in the beginning or are these add ons . Thanks .
Also Antelope South is within the current land leases bought by Total and the seismics look good with multi T estimates pre drill. If that proves out there should no doubt that PRL-15 has 10 T's plus . The TBR area outside PRL-15 has a government request for another Super Major and The IOC BOD has incentivized Hession to sign a deal with a non Total. Or it will be interesting .
MY RESPONSES:
Number 1. Yamal details: http://www.total.com/en/energy-expertise...onment-gas
5.5 mtpa per train at the beginning
Excerpts from TOTAL's Website:
Launched at end 2013, Yamal is not only one of the most complex liquefied natural gas projects ever undertaken; it is also one of the most competitive.
Competitive because it benefits from the vast natural gas reserves situated across the Yamal peninsula.
Complex because it is located above the Arctic Circle, a region that is ice-bound for seven to nine months during the year and isolated from all cities and oil and gas infrastructure. In collaboration with our partner Novatek and CNPC, we are undertaking a daunting technological feat by deploying unprecedented logistical resources.
More than 200 wells will be drilled for the project as we build three liquefaction trains, each of which offers an annual capacity of 5.5 million metric tons. To ensure its stability, the plant will be supported by tens of thousands of piles driven some 20 meters into the permafrost (a thick layer of frozen subsoil whose surface only thaws in summer months). This is the first time this technique will be used on such a large scale.
Logistics present another challenge. To facilitate the transport of equipment and staff, the port of Sabetta and an airport were built and are now operational. Over the next three years, the port of Sabetta will take delivery of 150 modules representing 450,000 metric tons, transported from Asia by some 20 vessels. The port will also serve to export the LNG.
Specially designed for the project, 15 LNG icebreaker tanker, each of which has a capacity of 170,000 cubic meters, will ship the LNG to international markets. A South Korean shipyard will deliver the first vessel in late 2016.
Note:
The sanctions adopted by the U.S. and Europe following the crisis in Ukraine will not impact construction on the Yamal project, which is proceeding on schedule.
Yamal LNG unlocks access to the vast gas resources of the Russian Arctic, while also opening a new LNG sea transport route to Asia using ice-class LNG carriers.
As of now, we have already sold all LNG production to European and Asian customers through 15- to 20-year contracts.
MY VIEWS:
A. The above was written some time ago before it came to light that Yamal is having trouble getting the required financing. I doubt if it's on schedule
B. TOTAL has 20% ownership. Partners are Novatek and China's CNPC, neither of whom have a lot of money!
C. TOTAL uses the phrases "one of the most complex liquified natural gas projects ever undertaken" "isolated from all cities and oil and gas infrastructure" "more than 200 wells will be drilled for the project" "15 LNG icebreaker tankers" - - - - > My gosh, if Yamal is "also one of the most competitive" LNG Projects worldwide WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT PAPUA LNG??
Number 2 - Antelope South
As we've already seen, it takes multiple wells before parties are willing/able to agree on the size of a resource. Therefore, doing anything meaningful in A-South in the next 5 years is out of the question.
They are laser focussed on the main A/E field and nothing else.
How much E/A gas will be certified as 2C Resources? Quite some time ago IOC stated that the GLJ High Case had become the Mid Case... and they said this before additional great results were accumulated.
I will be surprised if E/A is certified at less than 12 tcf
Number 3 - Potential to sell down other assets (TBR and Wahoo) to a third so-called "Super Major"
PNG Government said and did a lot of things in the past that are no longer valid now that OSH share price has tanked along with oil and LNG prices. PNG are in a bad situation with their revenue and budget situation. As such their first and foremost need is for Papua LNG to be sanctioned ASAP.
At the same time, IOC will most likely find it very difficult to attract yet another major player to set up shop from scratch in PNG.
+ I see XOM, TOT, OSH, IOC and possibly Woodside being the only PNG players going forward.
+ Santos wants out. They want US$ 1 Billion net (with assumption of Debt) for their 13% share of PNG LNG
+ Repsol, who paid US$ 13 Billion to acquire Talisman, seemingly stopped their PNG activities. Repsol's current Market Cap is less than US$ 14 Billion. They pay a 10% dividend - - - which means ithe Divvy is likely to be slashed momentarily. Repsol says the following about PNG "We have rights over 2 blocks in exploration over a net surface area of 12,338 Km2. We are also operating in 3 blocks in production, one being offshore, and with a net surface area of 361 Km2." NOT MUCH
+ Shell has mountains of debt and is trying to dump assets to pay for the acquisition of BG Group
+ Chevron has too much going on in their over-priced Australian LNG plants
+ BP won't consider PNG when they have so many other "Yooog" problems to tackle