Current Implied Value of CVR

[steve3752]

As of 12:30 pm EST June 3rd, buying a share of IOC at current price will give you almost all your money back in 50 days ( except $2.33) and leave you with a CVR worth $18-$30 in a year, and as a bonus there is some chance that the offer is improved.

OSH share    AUD     6.69

Exchange rate = .7338

OSH in USD =   $4.89

8.05 OSH shares = $39.40

IOC price = $41.73

Cost of your CVR = $2.33

( so assumes 6.59 TCF Gross )

I think you are leaving the word could from your statement that the cvr is worth $18-$30 in a year.   What if the certification is 6.2TCF.  That is zero CVR.  You make the CVR sound guaranteed when it is not.  Am I missing something?