(06-04-2016, 05:19 PM)Liloilady Wrote:MY REPLIES are my opinions - they may contain "Forward Looking Statements" that allow me to say whatever I want. Later, I can say:
1) See, I told you so
OR
2) No one should have taken me seriously, so you can't call me a lying criminal
The adequate floor removes CVR value uncertainty. Someone here in the biz mentioned that resource evaluators can have a +/- 5%–10% wiggle room, sometimes depending on their client. TOTAL is the second largest gas company in the world.
MY REPLY: If the OSH/IOC deal goes through as currently agreed by IOC Management - - - BUTT not accepted by IOC Shareholders - - - the evaluators (without A-7 being drilled) will be chosen by TOTAL and by OSH. Neither one would want the outcome to be more than 6.2 Tcfe.
Wait Stavros. Are you trying to suggest that OSH should actually PAY for (PART of) their interest in TBR (after their deal with Total.) Never mind Wahoo, other critters and extensive, expensive seismic studies identifying 40+ promising prospects over some of the rest of the 3,500,000 acres...etc.?
MY REPLY:
Patrick Pouyanne is stepping on our collective necks with his Neanderthal size 20 boots. It's TOTAL who is committing grand larceny by orchestrating this deal, which they've been doing for a few years, since the Transformational Deal was thrust upon us.
Peter Botten is resigned to the fact that TOTAL will buy out OSH sooner rather than later; probably at a loss to all OSH shareholders, including the PNG Government.
Michael Hession is perhaps trying to CA$H in on his grand master plan to eliminate IOC and collect tens of million$ for his efforts. Rumors abound about Pincus; are they true??? I don't know.
1. He was fired by Woodside??
2. He wears pink because he washed his shirts together with his red undies??
3. His idol was Bruce Jenner ever since he was a boy??
Now instead of OSH and Total getting a smashing deal, IOC shareholders get a fair and acceptable deal.
MY REPLY:
OSH shareholders (and that includes Stevie Cohen, Phil Mulaek, Gaylen Byker, Carlo Civelli, and multiple large Institutions) must let IOC, OSH and TOTAL Management know that we are likely to veto the deal as it is currently concocted.
We don't mind being OSH shareholders as long as we get the proper percentage ownership of what we were assured was under those millions of acres. Right now, male shareholders are instead looking at getting a couple of achers. Women will get a comparable outcome.
I personally think the fair deal value is the equivalent of $85 per IOC share. Instead, the market says the deal is worth $42.
The alternative to this larceny is for the deal to be killed by shareholders. IOC would then sell itself off in pieces and return the proceeds directly to IOC shareholders. The amount depends on the E/A Certification, which will be done without manipulation if we veto the deal.
+ At 12.4 Tcfe ( GLJ's current upwardly revised High Case (P10) which Pincus lead us to believe is now IOC's internal Mid Case) IOC would get 2.707 Billion$ at Certification plus 517 Million$ at FID - - - a total of $63 per IOC share.
+ The retained 36.5% GROSS ownership of Papua LNG will be worth at least another $40 per share to interested parties such as Mitsui, JX NOE, XOM, BP, Shell, CVX, Woodside etc
+ Triceratops + Bobcat + Raptor + Wahoo + etc would be worth at least $10 per share
I don't know about you, Stavros. Or am I just feeding the dragon :-)
God help us!
MY REPLY: My Momma always imparted the following words of wisdom when I was growing up:
= If you work hard, you will be rewarded properly
= No one will fight your battles for you; fight for yourself
= What goes around, comes around, to those who do you wrong