OPEC, for some quiet moments..

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Of course one forecast can’t really validate another, so let’s consider how some of the big uncertainties that the IEA identified in the 2011 report have shifted, starting with energy pricing. After oil’s recent rebound, oil and gas have fallen by around half their 2011 US prices. That makes investments in oil and gas exploration and production considerably less attractive. Nearly $400 billion of projects have been canceled or deferred, globally, setting up slower growth in production from both gas fields and oil fields with associated gas in the near-to-medium term. This deceleration is evident in EIA’s latest monthly Drilling Productivity Report for US shale.

On track for a Golden Age of Gas?

The oil market just hit a yellow light. Crude’s advance of more than 90% from a 12-year low earlier this year has U.S. shale producers starting to return to their drilling rigs, threatening to slow further gains.  "The $50-to-$60/bbl area is the sweet spot," said Mark Watkins, the Park City, Utah-based regional investment manager for The Private Client Group of U.S. Bank, which oversees $128 billion of assets. "You start to have producers come back at $50, but a lot of them come in at $60."

Rising oil prices encourage shale producers, dissuade investors

OPEC predicted that the global oil market will be more balanced in the second half of this year as demand rises and rival supplies falter, echoing views expressed by ministers at the group’s meeting this month. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept estimates for world supply and demand in 2016 unchanged in its monthly market report. Disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s output to 32.36 MMbopd last month, a little below the 32.6 million average required to satisfy estimated demand in the second half.

OPEC sees oil market balancing toward the end of 2016

Oil prices could surge above $85 a barrel by the end of this year, according to analysis by Michael Rothman, considered to be one of the most astute oil experts on Wall Street, CNBC reports. Rothman heads the research firm Cornerstone Analytics, through which he advises governments from all over the world, the oil-rich Saudi royal family and its affiliates, and energy firms.

Rothman: Oil Prices to Surge To Over $85 By End of 2016 | OilPrice.com