July 28 meeting location

[katytrader]

  If Hession defended the 10.2 with respect to this deal, he would end up being wrong because the deal will use an AVERAGE of two figures.  He can be right only if BOTH figures come in at 10.2 or higher, something which seems unlikely to me.   I suspect that this is why Botten lowballs the number......he prefers any "surprise"  to be on the upside, rather than be accused of deception and all the other labels.

I won't comment on how you need both numbers over 10.2 to average 10.2.

Hession has a doctorate in geophysics.  He should be very familiar with how GLJ has come by its etimates since 2009.  In fact he stated his own due diligence and that of his associates included a review of the resource estimates prior to his agreeing to take the job.  If he knew of a material problem with the GLJ estimate (and again, he had  the knowlege, experience, resouces, access and RESPONSIBILITY to know) that information should have been made public months if not years ago.

Nobody is going to quibble over an average that doesn't equal 10.2. Providing an explanation for delaying certification with A7 to the point the company had to be sold because of financing issues (when earlier this year he said we were fine given the new LOC) well, that certainly is a different matter.

Hession is a crook. He has gambled that he can manage grand corporate theft and get away with it. We will see.

[/quote]  I was trying to respond to your point of Hession's not "vigorously defending" the 10.2 figure in the face of the press citing lower numbers.  Hession may well believe that GLJ's methods and estimate is as good as it gets for a reserve estimate, but in the context of different firms averaging their results the GLJ figure could well be an outlier.  With their datum not even to be in the average, it seems to me to be more probable that the averaged figures will be less than the GLJ number.    I didn't mean that it would take both figures to be more than 10.2 to average that (I am not that innumerate), but that Hession would not want to be "vigorously defending" 10.2 unless he believed that the other two firms' estimates would be greater.  As for quibbling, hah, maybe you don't read all of the stuff that gets posted on SHU.

I don't think we will ever learn what has gone on with the A7 decision-making.  Having been around tri-partite unitization negotiations, I think it is possible that none of the participants can give a completely accurate story covering the ups and downs and u-turns that likely occurred.....and may still be ongoing.