'ArtM72' pid='72367' datel Wrote:
'kommonsents' pid='72361' datel Wrote:I think we have to be realistic about the future value of the CVR, considering what we already know about the players. The only number that is important to both Total and to OSH is that the certification certifies enough for two trains to support the project borrowing. Anything more is a waste of money for them.....AT THIS TIME! I doubt very much any certification much above 7.2 Ts and I will make my decisions with regards to the the CVR based upon that scenario.Lib up above asked the question who do you trust with the certification number, Botten or Hession? That is a trick question. You trust the company that puts its professional reputation on the line. GLJ. 10.2 TCF is the C2. What is the expected maximum deviation from that number? +/- 10%? There's your real range. Hession has used his guarded language to say two trains...that would be two 5 MTPA plants...and there is your answer again.
There seems a scenario that should be considered goes like this. GLJ believes there to be 10.2 TCF but another unidentified certifier insists that A7 first be drilled before credit can be given for the 3 TCF necessary to get from 7 to 10. If that is the case, the PhD we hired as CEO would be expected to understand and communicate this unlikely confluence of estimates to his shareholders as a reason for going to this expense.
As it stands the more likely scenario is that A7 is hoped to take 10.2 to 13.2. That will make E/A much more valuable to OSH and TOT, but put OSH in a cash crunch, a cash crunch that will be solved by this deal. Assuming IOC will live to see next year, money to drill A7 can be obtained by trading the carry for Antelope South which was part of the SPA with Total.
Are you saying that GLJ will be certifying for this deal?
I don't think so. And if not, who?
And once who, what pressures will be upon them to be very conversative with their certification, as long as two trains are supported. Heck, we can always recertify later with "new" information and understandings. Just sayin'......