The Attempted Grand Theft of IOC

[admin]

Sorry, you guys can;t stop, think and breathe and take a chance to consider what is moreso appearing to be the reality.

Well, perhaps we're not as clever as you but we did think, stop and breath and took a chance considering everything.

Let's make this binary with respect to the recert:

• Low (7T or lower)
• High (10T or higher)

And now for some stylized facts:

1. Whatever OSH and TOT had in mind back when they entered PRL15, they entered via contingency deals
2. Whatever has happened since in terms of appraisal work, the chances of a high recert has increased, also according to Hession
3. The LNG market isn't near as attractive as it was when TOT and OSH entered PRL15
4. IOC can remain viable with a high recert, but will really struggle with a low recert
5. There is little doubt that the OSH takeover of IOC and the OSH MoU with TOT remove much of the contingency from a high recert (see Pet's original post in this thread).

Binary outcome in the light of these stylized facts

• Low recert: Hession might have gotten us the best deal available in a forced selling of the company
• High recert: Hession has sold us out giving away much of our upside while the company could have remained viable

You see why one of the first things I said was that the big thing missing in valuating the deal is knowledge of the recert, and that this is like "groping in the dark"?

It's REALLY crucial info, IMHO.