06-21-2016, 03:33 PM
So, how much Art?
If the current Rotten Raw Deal nets IOC Shareholders $60-65, then I'm suggesting $85 is the minimum acceptable Deal Value.
The issue, as Mr Maximus has spoken about, is that we still don't have a clue how much gas is in E/A!
This so-called "unlimited upside CVR" does not cover what IOC would get if TOTAL pays based on the current SPA terms.
So, for the 102nd time, I think we should get:
1. 10 shares of OSH per share of IOC - - - at the current OSH PPS, that comes to ~US$50
2. CVR at US$7.75 per Tcfe for E/A gas certified above 6.2 Tcfe - - - at 10.2 Tcfe, that comes to US$ 31
3. CVR Floor at US$ 30
Why 10 OSH Shares instead of 8.05? That gives us a value for resources other than E/A.
Why US$ 7.75 instead of US$ 6.05? That gives us a payment in-line with what TOTAL is obliged to pay under the SPA.
Why a Floor of US$ 30? That's what Hession said is contained in E/A (GLJ's mid Case) - WITHOUT ACCOUNTING for Antelope South. He made it an outright statement of fact on numerous occasions - - - he can't hide behind "Safe Harbor" pronouncements!
If we can get a Deal that's better than what I laid out above . . . all the better!
If the current Rotten Raw Deal nets IOC Shareholders $60-65, then I'm suggesting $85 is the minimum acceptable Deal Value.
The issue, as Mr Maximus has spoken about, is that we still don't have a clue how much gas is in E/A!
This so-called "unlimited upside CVR" does not cover what IOC would get if TOTAL pays based on the current SPA terms.
So, for the 102nd time, I think we should get:
1. 10 shares of OSH per share of IOC - - - at the current OSH PPS, that comes to ~US$50
2. CVR at US$7.75 per Tcfe for E/A gas certified above 6.2 Tcfe - - - at 10.2 Tcfe, that comes to US$ 31
3. CVR Floor at US$ 30
Why 10 OSH Shares instead of 8.05? That gives us a value for resources other than E/A.
Why US$ 7.75 instead of US$ 6.05? That gives us a payment in-line with what TOTAL is obliged to pay under the SPA.
Why a Floor of US$ 30? That's what Hession said is contained in E/A (GLJ's mid Case) - WITHOUT ACCOUNTING for Antelope South. He made it an outright statement of fact on numerous occasions - - - he can't hide behind "Safe Harbor" pronouncements!
If we can get a Deal that's better than what I laid out above . . . all the better!
Drivel Maven with Personality