Brexit

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Unfortunately, this discounting process may not be finished. Our FX strategists believe that GBP will ultimately fall to 1.25-1.30. Our equity strategists believe that European and UK stocks may need to correct a further 7-10% over the next several months. While these adjustments may seem harsh in light of Friday's moves, we think they're consistent with the uncertainty this vote has created. 1.25-1.30 for GBP would only begin to make the currency look cheap on a trade-weighted basis. A further 7-10% fall in UK and European stocks would simply bring forward multiples down to the long-run average. Both seem reasonable in light of increased uncertainty. And that uncertainty is high and extended, given that leaving the EU is a two-year process under the Treaty of Lisbon. This is likely to delay investment, and will hit consumption if consumers feel less confident about the economic situation or the value of their home.

While the size of the economic impact depends on the political steps taken from here, our economists estimate that it could knock 1.5pp off UK GDP over the next 18 months. This impact is not limited to the UK. After considering the impacts to trade, confidence and investment, they see a potential cost of 0.8pp to euro area GDP. For the global economy, there could be a cumulative hit of ~0.5pp from our baseline between now and the end of 2017. This weakening of the global environment would likely weigh on the Fed's thinking. Our US economists no longer expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year, keeping G4 yields lower for longer."

Morgan Stanley says Brexit knock-on effect could take 0.5 points off global GDP - Business Insider