07-28-2012, 12:06 AM
I think if you focus on especially Simon's comments he makes some very interesting comments:
1. "They announced last year that we were a preferred partner because of the capability they want to bring into the country, large project developers,
people who can develop markets and local capability." "A" preferred partner which is interesting. We have been hearing through Post Courier that Shell is 'THE" preferred partner which didn't make sense given Exxon, Japex, Mitsui, etc involvement in the country. Now the government (Duma) has said that Shell is THE preferred partner on the IOC project, but was that Duma trying to ram Shell down IOC's throat or is the government really open to others being involved with IOC? Simon's comments seem to indicate that they realize that they are "A" preferred partner in this project, but it's not a given.
2. As Value says this appears to indicate that discussions are ongoing, and (as we know) very dependent on the election outcome. Which all indicates "later" rather than sooner.
3. IOC has the gas and PNG is seen to be on par with both Australia and Indonesia. This is huge as it confirms how importatnt PNG is in general and IOC must be in particular with its large reefs and wet gas. It is a jewel that SMs want. Seems he might have mentioned Africa, Canada, etc. due to recent activity as far as type of plays, but he mentions Australia and Indonesia. Very telling I think. In June, Shell announced it will be investing $20 billion in Indonesia in the Abadi offshore LNG project. That's major. (http://www.breakbulk.com/oil-gas/shell-i...-lng-06-11). We know what they have going in Australia. That's major. They want similar things in PNG. That's major
4. We should expect that they are being very aggressive in the PRL 15 discussions; they want it. We should also expect Exxon to be equally or more aggressive due to their existing project and needs. If Shell does not get PRL 15, we should expect that they will be VERY aggressive in the rest of IOC's license areas. That's major.
5. If need be Shell WILL initaiate a bidding war to buy all of IOC. That's major.
Life is good.
1. "They announced last year that we were a preferred partner because of the capability they want to bring into the country, large project developers,
people who can develop markets and local capability." "A" preferred partner which is interesting. We have been hearing through Post Courier that Shell is 'THE" preferred partner which didn't make sense given Exxon, Japex, Mitsui, etc involvement in the country. Now the government (Duma) has said that Shell is THE preferred partner on the IOC project, but was that Duma trying to ram Shell down IOC's throat or is the government really open to others being involved with IOC? Simon's comments seem to indicate that they realize that they are "A" preferred partner in this project, but it's not a given.
2. As Value says this appears to indicate that discussions are ongoing, and (as we know) very dependent on the election outcome. Which all indicates "later" rather than sooner.
3. IOC has the gas and PNG is seen to be on par with both Australia and Indonesia. This is huge as it confirms how importatnt PNG is in general and IOC must be in particular with its large reefs and wet gas. It is a jewel that SMs want. Seems he might have mentioned Africa, Canada, etc. due to recent activity as far as type of plays, but he mentions Australia and Indonesia. Very telling I think. In June, Shell announced it will be investing $20 billion in Indonesia in the Abadi offshore LNG project. That's major. (http://www.breakbulk.com/oil-gas/shell-i...-lng-06-11). We know what they have going in Australia. That's major. They want similar things in PNG. That's major
4. We should expect that they are being very aggressive in the PRL 15 discussions; they want it. We should also expect Exxon to be equally or more aggressive due to their existing project and needs. If Shell does not get PRL 15, we should expect that they will be VERY aggressive in the rest of IOC's license areas. That's major.
5. If need be Shell WILL initaiate a bidding war to buy all of IOC. That's major.
Life is good.