Here's my hunch inspired from observing XOM in 3rd world places. XOM wants to be the only LNG operator in PNG forever. This way whatever happens in the govt, XOM is their only path to exporting LNG. This gives XOM tremendous power to deal with whatever treacherous thing the gov't might do. XOM plays hardball with dictators. Example Venezuela. They just walked out. Look at Venezuela - circular firing squad there.
Somehow there will end up being one big plant and XOM will operate. I think there is a reasonable chance of that outcome. This low price LNG market works in their favor. Will OSH be next on their shopping list? That makes it a little easier to push TOT out.
Does anyone have the JOA between TOT and IOC? I think JOA structures in the US at least in the GoM allow partners in a field to take their share of the HCs in kind. I wouldn't expect such a clause in the IOC/TOT JOA, but if it is there, then TOT is TOasT.