07-24-2016, 09:39 AM
I can't see anyway Exxon let's Total off the hook for the SPA payments . In the OSH deal Total got a larger slice of the pie so that's what they want to achieve . If Exxon buys IOC their portion remains the same and they would not have a majority vote . The Total owned gas could be sent to the Exxon plant ..Total has this Singapore LNG trading office with possibly no LNG of their own in Asia .
Who thinks Total stands by and let's Exxon take over ???
Here's the way to look at it .
Minimum gas under Exxon bid
Exxon pays $2.5 Billion in stock and Total pays Exxon $1.2.Billion(T payment and FID payment ) in cash from the SPA.
Net to Exxon buying Interoil costs them $1.3 Billion
Max gas under Exxon bid
Exxon pays $3.5 Billion part stock part cash . But Total pays Exxon $2 Billion(T payment and FID payment
Exxon buying Interoil costs them $1.5 Billion .
Using the minimal numbers Total can bid $1.2 Billion more than Exxon and break even . Or Interoil investors receive $3.7 Billion , assume 51 million shares that's $72.549 per IOC share
Using the max numbers Total can bid $2 Billion more than Exxon and break even . Or Interoil investors receive $5.5 Billion . Assume 51 million shares that's $107.84 per IOC shares
Reality most likely Total would not bid the max and certifying the max is also suspect . But most posters on this board would say even at the $107 price we think we are being robbed .
Not our call though . The ball is in Total's court .
Who thinks Total stands by and let's Exxon take over ???
Here's the way to look at it .
Minimum gas under Exxon bid
Exxon pays $2.5 Billion in stock and Total pays Exxon $1.2.Billion(T payment and FID payment ) in cash from the SPA.
Net to Exxon buying Interoil costs them $1.3 Billion
Max gas under Exxon bid
Exxon pays $3.5 Billion part stock part cash . But Total pays Exxon $2 Billion(T payment and FID payment
Exxon buying Interoil costs them $1.5 Billion .
Using the minimal numbers Total can bid $1.2 Billion more than Exxon and break even . Or Interoil investors receive $3.7 Billion , assume 51 million shares that's $72.549 per IOC share
Using the max numbers Total can bid $2 Billion more than Exxon and break even . Or Interoil investors receive $5.5 Billion . Assume 51 million shares that's $107.84 per IOC shares
Reality most likely Total would not bid the max and certifying the max is also suspect . But most posters on this board would say even at the $107 price we think we are being robbed .
Not our call though . The ball is in Total's court .