10Ts Highly Unlikely at Certification

[ioc.aussie]

Starting with a few assumptions:

1. Let's assume A7 actually hits and it does hit higher than was estimated by OSH/Pac.
2. Cert numbers will be influenced by the company's certifiers as per Kaliboo's post here
3. TOT wants the smallest cert number available.
4. XOM wants the largest cert number available.

Playing with the numbers:

• TOT at 7 which means XOM would have to come in at 13 just to make a 10T certification
• TOT at 7, XOM at 11 would mean a 9T cert
• TOT at 7, XOM at 9 and we get 8T cert.

So after everything that has happened, imho, there is no way the 10T XOM bid cap comes into play and I would be surprised if we ended up with a cert number north of 8.5.

H&H,

Hemi

p.s. Another reason why I don't see TOT counter bidding as they won't be afraid of making a big initial payout at certification.

Disagree..  certifiers will receive same information and data ...  they will be scutinised this time.. unlike OSH..

I believe they will cerify much closer  , less spread.