jft310 dateline='<a href="tel:1469441307">1469441307</a>' Wrote: Total can save making the promised payments in the SPA to IOC by making a bid. Those payments are substantial and if all those payment requirements transfer to the buyer of IOC as I believe then Total is compelled to bid.My opinion is based on conversations 2 former IOC execs who own substantial positions in IOC stock.They both think Total will bid at some time. Phil addressed in his presentation the possibility of the lack of a large difference in asset size between Ant 6 and 7. GLJ has included much of what Ant 7 can provide. How much with one well will the asset jump ???
TOT may bid to protect themselves from the unlimited upside exposure they now have. Am not sure why XOM put a cap on it given the OSH certifications, but maybe Rex said no cap, no way. Dunno.
We've been told A7 may get 1-2 TCF, but part of that is probably baked-in to the current 2C numbers. The 3C numbers of NSAI and GCA from OSH were 8.11 and 7.57, respectively, which seem very tight/close to the 2C numbers. Remember these numbers are designed to account for 90% of all possible sizes. Take about 5% or so off of those numbers to account for CO2 and fuel and flare (which I had a better estimate of that reduction GLJ 2009 says up to 10% but then you have to add-in the condensate volumes, I think, on a quick read) and that is your hydrocarbon gas.
So how to get above 95% of 8.11 or 7.7 TCF is difficult for me to envision. Assuming Beicip (my bet for TOT certifier) comes in at 6 or 7 after all that red wine, foie gras and croissant, that would mean XOM needs to go to 10-11 just to get an average of 8. No way. Nothing in it for XOM unless it's already over 10.
Post A7 2C number will likely be 7TCF and change, as others have said. Wild card certification could be a lot more, and I mean a lot (12?) as they have no idea of the contribution of low k material and other connected reserves. XOM is aware of this from their NE Thailand experience and am sure many other examples.
All IMHO.