'kommonsents' pid='74764' datel Wrote:Per Art: "So why would OSH and IOC agree to specify two different approaches if not to cover their trail?" Perhaps to get an average between the two methods? One cancels out the other?
No. Read the Rose article linked by Indo. You can't compare results of the two methods other than by an average. If both were probablistic, which per Rose is the standard in the discovery part of the industry, you would have not only an average but a far more instructive P10 and P90 numbers indicating the uncertainty and range of possibilities. If both firms had P10s less than 10.2, and both firms had a history of accurate predictions we would have a lot more confidence in both estimates. By not disclosing the P10 and P90 of the one firm and giving us only averages just what do we have? An unnecessarily obfuscated result.
Civelli got his secondary appraisal a year after first shipment for a very, very good reason. We all should now know why. IOC shareholders are being played by crooks, this deterministic/probablistic scam being only one more indication.