I don't think it would too hard to convince Exxon to do what Phil is asking. He is not asking for much. He said the $45/share is fair and I don't see where he asked them to increase CRP interim payment of $7.07/SH/TCF. All he is asking for is a fair resource appraisal using the most knowledgeable certifers GLJ, GCA OR Knowlege Reservoir.
He is trying to convince Exxon that they stand to gain more from Total than IOC shareholders will gain from Exxon if the resource volume comes in high. He wants the wildcard certification and the Material Balance certification restored to the deal that Exxon is offering but those certifications will probably not take place for 6 - 10 years. If the project is to last for 20 years 25% of that is 5 years after production starts. Can they build the plant in less than 4 years? Maybe. Anyway the NPV of those payments would be insignificant to Exxon. Doesn't matter much to me since I will most likely be dead by then.
I am more interested in the Interim resource payment and the upfront payment. Some of Phils charts indicate the $45 might ought to be $49/share. I agree with Phil that the Cap should be removed and the later certifications should be restored to the Exxon proposal. If they don't raise the $45/share or the $7.07/sh/TCFe Phil's requested changes would cost Exxon almost nothing and they would stand to gain a very large payment from Total if the resource volume comes in very high.
We have to wonder if Total is willing to take that risk.