Reservoir Drive Matters

[haroco]

It's hard to get a straight answer to the size or drive question.

I have posted this information before but some of you might find it of interest.

Go to the 2009 GLJ report at http://tinyurl.com/lrjknkq 

GLJ thinks this is  not a water drive as described on page 27 of 51:

"If the Elk/Antelope structure was connected to this system, then an infinite-acting aquifer would be expected. However, as shown on Plot 1, the Elk/Antelope aquifer is approximately 460 psi higher in pressure, proving a disconnection. The over pressuring of this aquifer could be related to a sealed fault block or series of fault blocks being elevated during tectonic movement, which would result in a limited water drive, or a higher recharge area (approximately 500+ metres above sea level, which would be in the mountains to the north). This second option would require a regional, north-south oriented permeability barrier to the west of the structure. If this was the case, then a strong aquifer would exist."

Recovery factors  for the Low Estimate, Best Estimate and High Estimate are shown on page 31 of 51. TheLow Estimate was for a strong water drive with 80% water swept volume. The Best Estimate was for a weaker water drive with 50% water swept volume and the High Estimate was for 20% water swept volume or pretty much a depletion drive.

I do not know how this has changed over the years with the GLJ reports since this is the only one that has been published.

I am a believer in the depletion drive simply because the aquifer pressure is 460 psi higher than the regional aquifer. I do not buy the 500+ meters higher recharge area. I think there are too many faults and we are too far from the mountains for this to be the case. We will probably have some water drive due to the expansion of the "sealed up" and over pressured aquifer but this should be minimal since water is pretty much incompressible. If the aquifer is sealed up then the high case becomes the Best or most likely case. In  2009 the "marketable" P-50 gas was 9.08TCF plus 156.5 million barrels of condensate.

I'm onboard with Pet ... plus,plus the enity that would have the best info is XOM ... if they are afraid of water drive, why would they put a cap on their "additional stk payments" at 10 , i.e., no cap probably needed?   ... they probably wouldn't be bidding at all.   It was OSH that started the rumor to keep others from bidding against them !!!

At the end of 2015 GLJ had a Gross un-risked 2C resource level of 1,662.6 MMBOe which is equivalent to10.4 TCFe. The Gross un-risked 3C resource level was 2,022.4 MMBOe which is equivalent to 12.13 TCFe. So if we had a perfect depletion drive the recovery should be more than 12 TCFe.