07-31-2016, 11:30 PM
A fearful shadow is hanging over our impending Brexit negotations with the EU – and it centres on the very people who were most vocal in calling for a referendum in the first place: those senior Tory Eurosceptics, including the “Three Brexiteers” now billed to play the lead roles in the negotiations. What became painfully clear during the campaign was not just that the official Leavers were unable to offer a coherent “exit plan”, but that they also seemed to be woefully ignorant of the technical complexities involved in any process of leaving the EU. Although they did not share any common strategy, the likes of Boris Johnson, David Davis, Liam Fox, Bill Cash and Co, came up with one naïve suggestion after another, based on nothing more than wishful thinking.
We need to get real about how to leave the EU
The most crucial gap in their knowledge, however, is their failure to understand that, because all arrangements governing trade are now solely a competence of the EU, we can only legally carry on international trade in accordance with the immensely complex procedures laid down in the EU Customs Code, a package that is 1300 pages long. Unless Theresa May takes a firm grip on what her ministers are up to, by insisting on them going for the simple option of remaining in the EEA, we could even face the ultimate disaster where the timetable for negotiations runs out and we don’t just drop out of the EU without a settlement, but also its Customs Code on which all our current trading procedures depend. Overnight we would no longer have any system of law allowing us to continue trading at all. Not just with the EU, but with anyone else.
We need to get real about how to leave the EU
There has been a pronounced tone-change among UK economics analysts since the EU Referendum: They are in unanimous agreement that the UK will sink into recession in the second half of this year. They disagree only on the details and depth. Call it the Silence of the Bulls: no one — literally, no one — is making a bullish case for the post-Brexit economy. That is what is so scary about this recession. Usually, analysts and economists like to hedge their bets. Their opinions are spread over a range, with outright disagreements. They talk about "the risk" of something happening; they don't say "this will happen."
Statistics show Brexit is causing a recession in the UK - Business Insider