'CAC' pid='78421' dateline='<a href="tel:1481829 Wrote:___________________________________________________________________________________________________
While I lean in favor of the logic for a new vote, if we have a new, independent, unconflicted opinion, which says the Exxon deal is the best IOC can expect, or is otherwise a fair offer, it's certainly possible Exxon/IOC might try to push ahead without the vote.
The thing no one is talking about is A7. If a new vote is required, the process will take months. A7 will be completed, so the whole CRP issue goes away and the updated reserves will have to be certified or otherwise included in the deal. Conversely, if Exxon/IOC can end-run the vote, then the results of A7 will not be known and the CRP aspect and the entire deal is unchanged. So there is a major incentive to conclude the deal quickly, i.e., get the fairness opinion (and they probably already know how that is looking) and make the argument to the court that the deal was fair all along and no need to re-vote (time is money, etc.)
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One logical reason XOM-IOC would want to push this through before A7 is so they can keep the CRP carrot in place (as it was at the time of the last vote). If XOM knows they intend to manipulate the certification into "zero-value" for the CRP, they would want the vote before that occurs. If the new vote is after certifcation then maybe a couple of funds vote "no" to just getting $45 for their shares.
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I'm inclined to think that the certification will be purposefully low. When Pet and his SHU assistant crunched the numbers a while back – TOT payment to XOM ----> XOM payment to IOC at various cert'd Tcfe levels, it displayed how both Total and Exxon would greatly benefit from the interim certification being low – benefit TOT near term and XOM medium term. We're talkin' in the upper nine figures here. Is the cap part of the carrot or just the bean counters at HQ reassuring themselves?
OSH managed to get an average of 6.4T. The IPI got zero dollars. If I recall correctly, the IPI will receive payment at a "final certification."
I'm with you CAC.