'Crippsfl' pid='78707' datel Wrote:After 8 years of being an IOC shareholder, I have sold all of my shares and am moving on. I have patiently waited for good things to happen with no success. Before I go, I do have few observations and opinions I would like to share. Take them for what they're worth.
1. The game has been rigged and the end result is already determined. The deal will pass the vote and everyone still holding shares will get a measly $45 a share in Exxon shares. There are nowhere near enough "No" votes to stop it. If by some freak event, the vote is "No"', I would not be at all surprised if Exxon and Total don't sit back and watch IOC implode. We are low on cash and paying out $100 million in cancellation fees would not help.
2. The CRP payment is going to be either $0 or less than $5 a share. The complete failure of Ant-7 and the "updated" GLJ reserve estimates have convinced me that neither Exxon or Total is really interested in a high number - now. In a couple of years, when it doesn't affect IOC shareholders, a improved number it will suddenly appear.
3. I will not be sending "Thank You" cards to Phil. All his court case did was cost us money. IOC shareholders are sitting on their shares that are making NOTHING. If the deal would have closed earlier, we all would had Exxon shares that would have appreciated nearly 10% since then. If Exxon continues to climb, the loss is even worse. At least by getting out now, I get a slightly higher sale number and the opportunity to invest in a market that, at least for now, seems to have upward potential.
4. I think the No - dissent vote is going nowhere. It is difficult to convince someone that an asset I am trying to sell is worth considerably more than anyone has offered to pay recently. It would be one thing to convince the court if we had a line of suitors ready to buy. IOC does not. Even Total was unwilling to step up the game. All that said, if I am right about the CRP payment, what could it hurt?
i wish you all well. I will miss Pet's thoughtful posts as well as many others. I will continue to watch with great interest. And I will sleep better a night!
Cripps- Well stated. Afraid there will not be any more "thoughtful posts" from Pet after today. I sold all of my shares yesterday. I don't have much hope for the shares to increase from here.
1. GCA Resource estimate 6.8 TCFe
2. NSAI Resource estimate 6.06 TCFe
3. Average of the two above estimates 6.43 TCFe which is what OilSearch used with the IPI investors.
4. The New GLJ resource estimate is 7.8 TCFe.
5. Average of the three estimates is 6.9 TCFe
6. Exxon will pay $7.07/TCFe above 6.2 TCFe. (6.9 - 6.20) x$7.07 = $4.95/sh for the CRP
7. By selling yesterday I got $2.50/share for the CRP value. I might have lost $2.45/share by selling too early. Or more if the estimate comes in much higher. At this point I do not expect it to come in much higher, if any, and it could come in lower. A risk I am not willing to take. I think, given the few months that it will take to get the CRP, my money will be better invested elsewhere.
8. I have been wrong about as much as I have been right over the last 6+ years. My worst mistake was believing what IOC told us. I was mainly just interpreting what they said for you. I hope I was not responsible for any of you losing money. It is the end of a bad dream. I have enjoyed writing for you and wish you all the very best.
Pet