'Kaliboo' pid='79206' datel Wrote:[quote='Palm' pid='79203' dateline='1485553048'] Sorry North; When I first saw Kali's 2nd post above I thought it was yours. Kali, what is the source of this "Mackenzie" info?
I'm the source. I called them and told them. They said they will inform IOC. Phil et al also have been informed. Let's see what they do with this reality. My quick decision, right or wrong, was to surface this now as opposed to it potentially surfacing later and causing worse problems for shareholders. The MacKenzie guy said he thought the 4 day window where proxy votes have to vote early was likely due to Canadian law. IOC is probably one of those rare situations where very material information is continually potentially available up to the minute of the vote. A7 will increase or may decrease the volumes, but I think the potential is to increase. They won't have it production tested, but they very well could have it drilled and logged and possibly have formation fluid samples. If there is a clear indication of a pay zone, then that info is vastly different than a dry hole, wouldn't you think? They said the well could add over a TCFE to the numbers. That's why I say it is material up until the last minute of voting. It is well within the realm of possibility, as far as shareholders know, that the well could reveal this during the 4 day window or earlier. Unless they run into more "problems" or "slow down the progress."
So if you are dissenting and the valuation cut off date is December 14, then I think you have to exclude A7 in determining value of the company. But I'm no lawyer and don't understand how that works. But if A7 e.g., hits a 200+ m gas column in the sidetrack, then that derisks the CRP some more, adding back volumes, and the deal looks better. All shareholders should have this status and info available to them up to the minute of the vote, IMHO. I presume all parties - IOC and XOM - want to get this thing done ASAP. MH wants his money; XOM wants to move on. You can argue about what value can shareholders extract from having that info. The point is the volume could be impacted significantly, and that's all that matters.
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OK – now I understand. This is no bolt of new information. You called them and basically, complained. My guess is that nothing’s changed. I’d guess proxy services get all sorts of complaints from unhappy shareholders, particularly in this case. On the last vote, I talked at length with one guy. He asked permission to use my comments and they even called me back. So they do listen, and they do pass on comments. What happens at the other end is another story. I don’t think anything different will happen because:
1. IOC and Exxon know all about A7. They recognize the timing vs. the vote. What you’re telling them is nothing new. I’d also expect we will get some information on A7 before Feb 10, because it is an important piece of data. It’s important NOT because it changes anything (see below), but because they need to have a record of completeness of information to the shareholders. Of course if the sidetrack doesn’t get down in time, everything is moot.
2. I just don’t think it’s as big a deal as you make it out to be. Yes, more pay is good, but any change in resources is more than adequately covered by the CRP. So what if A7 adds another TCF? So you get another $7/share under the CRP. It doesn’t change the Exxon offer, which explicitly includes and accounts for good news at A7. If anything, the offer would then look even more “fair”.