91% vote for deal

[katytrader]

Part of issue also might be that BMO work went a long way in answering court's objections to the first deal proposal. This also included the much asked for NAV calculation which came very close to what Northoil put together. For someone to dissent and take the chance of receiving LESS than the deal offer might be more real than what's been portrayed. Why take THAT chance on this dead horse?

Palm and all, here's how I look at this.  The deal I think requires the recert to use two new appraisers to determine Elk/Antelope resource.  Well A7 may negatively affect this value.  Phil seems to think new appraisers who won't be familiar with the field may tend to be more conservative.  Bottom line is both factors mean the CRP could be near zero.

The dissenters will all get the same initial offer from IOC.  By law it has to be the value of the company when the BoD "approved the resolution" back in December.  By definition any positive or negative impact of A7 has to be excluded.  So IOC will use the data they had at that time to base the  new fair offer for dissenters.  Also, because we are dissenters I'm expecting an immediate all cash deal which might be higher but not lower than $45 cash; no 4+month waiting on CRP.  However, it is my understanding that even after dissenters receive that offer, they can take it OR they can rescind their dissent and accept the original deal.  So if this is correct, then why NOT dissent was my conclusion.  So right or wrong that is where I am.  If positive news were to come on A7, then I might rescind.  Given A7 bad news my guess is this may be closer to to $45 than $50.  But note this.  As long as XOM pps continues to fall, your "$45 in XOM stock" won't buy $45 in XOM stock.  How's that?  Because we will get the 10 day VWAP for XOM share calculation.   IN a falling XOM pps market the VWAP will be higher than the actual market price of the shares when they are assigned.  So $45 divided by a higher VWAP means fewer shares for IOC shareholders that if sold that same day, would not fetch $45/share.  At this point, the best action may be to sell at $48+ and be done before the deal is approved.

Also per BPJensen's comment I agree.  I saw no evidence that Phil has dissented.

PM needed the motion to pass in order to have the Dissent have meaning, so it is safe to assume that PM abstained in order to raise the probability that the Ayes would have it.   Evidence of Dissent should come out when the Court is asked to approve the Arrangement.