03-08-2017, 11:19 PM
We took a look at three scenarios that could lead to the euro splintering—and three that could see the currency coming through the populist wave in even stronger shape. And we poll expert opinion on the chances they could happen.
Three Ways the Euro Could Break Up—and Three Ways it Could Be Saved
A Dutch election next week, a presidential vote in France in April and a potential summer snap election in Italy: The next few months could be decisive for the eurozone’s existence and investors are beginning to once again brace for the worst—a breakup of the currency union. Looking at credit default swaps, data suggest traders have started to buy “insurance” against a so-called credit event, which could happen if a country leaves the eurozone. In France for example, the CDS spread last week rose to the highest level since 2013 at 70 basis points, while the spread for Italy has jumped above 190 basis points.
One chart shows eurozone breakup fears are creeping back into the market - MarketWatch