The U.K. is officially leaving the European Union. While those campaigning for more sovereignty and tighter border controls rejoice, the government's own economic forecasters are warning of tough times ahead. Divorce from the EU will be costly and it could weigh on Britain's economic prospects for years to come. Here is why
Cost of Brexit: U.K. faces more debt, weaker growth and a final EU bill - Mar. 29, 2017
“Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the cold war,” she said, apparently deploying one of the remainers’ strongest arguments: that at a time of global peril, now is not the time to destabilise an institution that has helped maintain the postwar peace. She appeared to warn too that in the age of Donald Trump it was folly for Britain to turn its back on the world’s largest single market. As she wrote to Tusk: “At a time when the growth of global trade is slowing, and there are signs that protectionist instincts are on the rise in many parts of the world, Europe has a responsibility to stand up for free trade in the interest of all our citizens.” She went further. “Perhaps now more than ever the world needs the liberal, democratic values of Europe – values that the UK shares.” Close your eyes and it might have been 1972, with May making the case for Britain joining the European Economic Community.
Theresa May’s tactic is clear: to accuse anyone who dares question her headlong, blindfold charge towards hard Brexit of being democracy deniers. This despite it looking increasingly likely that the result of her reckless, divisive Brexit will be to leave the single market and not reduce immigration – the very opposite of what Brexiteers pitched to the people.
Meanwhile Britain powers towards the cliff edge. By triggering article 50, May is giving herself an incredibly tough, self-imposed deadline to agree what could prove the messiest divorce in history. The EU is asking for a reported £50bn; May will apparently offer £3bn. The EU says it won’t discuss a future relationship until this is settled, and unless the deadline can be extended or an interim arrangement struck, Britain will be locked out of the single market without any new trade agreement in place. That agreement will depend on the consent of parliaments (and in some cases, regional parliaments) of 27 member states. It could take years. And that’s if Whitehall has the capacity: some have suggested it needs an additional 30,000 civil servants. So much for a Brexit saving, and £350m a week extra for the NHS, and so much for a government taking back control.