Brexit

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A British reset — and it probably falls on Philip Hammond, the chancellor, to persuade the prime minister — should start with the recognition that the previously imagined hard Brexit is impossible as well as undesirable. A distasteful electoral pact with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party makes no difference. The government does not have the numbers to legislate for a clean break. Nor does it have the time or administrative capacity to negotiate a bespoke arrangement.

The answer is a two-stage process. In the first, lasting perhaps five years beyond 2019, Britain would remain in the customs union and the single market through an arrangement within the European Economic Area — similar though not identical to that enjoyed by Norway. This pause, perhaps including a two-year notice clause if either side wished to withdraw, would allow for talks on a subsequent permanent association pact, embracing security and foreign policy as well as trade.

It goes without saying that such a deal would disadvantage Britain relative to today. It would be swapping a significant voice and influence in the shaping of European affairs for a small measure of autonomy. But this is in the nature of the Brexit decision. The choice is not one between “good” and “bad”, but one between less and more damaging.

A path that would avoid Brexit calamity