08-22-2017, 03:03 AM
Our report, From Project Fear to Project Prosperity, estimates that the gains from a full Brexit will be £135bn – around a 7% boost to GDP, with the reforms also raising the longer term growth rate. There are four elements in the calculation: 1) free trade, either via free trade agreements with the EU and the rest of the world, or if those are sticky via unilateral moves to remove our trade barriers 2) UK-run pragmatic regulation to replace the EU’s intrusive single-market regulation of our whole economy 3) our net EU contribution and 4) the cost to the taxpayer of the subsidy paid to unskilled EU immigrants, which we estimate at £3,500 per adult. Predictably, our estimates have triggered howls of protest and derision from the economists who aligned themselves with “project fear”. However that project was founded on two main planks: the assumption that Brexit UK would pursue protectionist and other illiberal policies, and the use of a “gravity” trade model..