Market Comment May 2018

[admin]

Useful background about the trade conflict between the US and China:

This post includes a very helpful timeline of trade tit for tat so far. There are also four diagrams that show trade flow impacts of various proposed tariff measures. You might want to go to the Bruegel post proper and view them there because they are interactive and I could not pull an interactive version over.

Trade War: How Tensions Have Risen Between China, the EU and the US | naked capitalism

Peak interest rates near?

The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle might be closer to its peak than policy makers —and stock-market investors — think, says one analyst. “While the Fed pronounces its monetary tightening as being at early stage and gradual, the facts on the ground beg the question of whether we could be much closer to the peak of the rate tightening phase,” wrote Andrew Lapthorne, head of quantitative research at Société Générale, in a note earlier this week. Currently, the Fed funds rates is at 1.50% to 1.75% after six quarter-percentage point rates hikes, with the central bank expecting the gradual tightening path continue beyond 2020.

Here’s how stock-market investors could be surprised by a peak in rates - MarketWatch