Brexit

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The UK will be poorer economically under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU, government analysis suggests. Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU. But a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say.

Brexit will make UK worse off, government forecasts warn - BBC News

Some basic facts: 44 per cent of UK trade is with the EU. A total of 60 per cent of all UK trade is with the EU or with countries that have trade agreements with the EU. The service sector, which is 80 per cent of the UK economy, has received scant attention during the Brexit process. Financial services alone contribute 11 per cent of total tax receipts. It is clear that frictionless trade with the EU will require the UK to comply with EU regulation either in fact or through so-called equivalence. We will be rule-takers with no rights over what is in those rules and no ability to define equivalence. As regards trading with non-EU countries covered by EU trade agreements, it will take many years to negotiate replacements. The new post-Brexit UK immigration policy is certain to cause staff shortages in industries such as agriculture, care for the elderly, hospitality, transport, and most public services including the National Health Service. This is because we have, in the UK, the high class problem of more or less full employment. The consequences are troubling. Trade is likely to be significantly affected. Direct investment into the UK will reduce substantially, which we are seeing even now. The UK’s position as the global financial services hub will be fractured — and we are already seeing this happening. Negotiating trade agreements as the UK solo will be difficult — we are a relatively small economy — and as events have shown, we have failed to make any progress on trade agreements since the referendum.

Let’s step back and consider the consequences | Financial Times