From Lake Side (November 19, 2018 report)
Our $6 price target flows from a 4.3x EV/2020 revenue multiple. The math works out to 4.3x $160M (our existing $120M FY20 revenue + $40M for IPAS) , plus $3.7M net cash, divided by 114.1M shares outstanding, post-close.
They have:
- 2018 revenue at $31.6M (including just Q4 from Artilium and nothing for iPass)
- 2019 revenue at $80M
- 2020 revenue at $160M (including $40M from iPass)
It's odd that they don't include anything for iPass in their 2019 revenue guidance, which only misses the first six weeks of 2019 as an acquired Pareteum company so they should have included 90% of their $40M revenue estimate for iPass in 2019, arriving at $116M.
They also estimate Artilium's 2018 revenue at $25M and Pareteum's 2018 revenue (without Artilium) at $27M. We had Artilium's revenue quite a bit lower in the first entry of this thread (at $18M).
So the pro-forma Pareteum-Artilium-iPass revenue for 2018 is indeed the $92 which was mentioned in the iPass acquisition investor presentation.
And the 2019 pro-forma Pareteum-Artilium-iPass revenue should be at least $92M, plus whatever growth they manage to produce converting backlog into revenues. It looks like our $145 estimate (based on a 10% conversion of backlog) might be a bit aggressive, but not by much as this $92M base figure (the combination of all revenue generated by Pareteum, Artilium and iPass in 2018) seems pretty well established.