03-11-2019, 05:47 AM
'Mrebs' pid='82928' datel Wrote:144M is the projected 2019 revs released by TEUM, and it was released the first week of December I believe... So they have added at least 118M to backlog during the months of Dec,Jan, and Feb, they also added 76M in Nov. Lets play it safe and not include Nov contracts. 118M x.15% (first year conversion %) = 17M + 144M = 161M - 6M (play it safe) for late IPAS close = 155M minimum for their update this Tuesday IMO. If they did not add Nov contracts to that 144M estimate then we could see them bump 2019 guidance as high as 166.5M, this # is still sand bagging b/c that does not include any contracts for the rest of 2019! We are way undervalued still there is no doubt there. I don't think many people know they came out with 144M projected revs in 2019 back in Dec.
A few datapoints:
- The iPass acquisition presentation came out on November 13.
- Pareteum's website do no longer seem to have that presentation (the above link is from Seeking Alpha).
- November's addition to backlog was very large: $76M and this came out on November 29.
Ergo, that presentation doesn't include November's figures. It's somewhat odd that analysts would not be familiar with that presentation, and it's also odd that it doesn't appear to be on the website anymore (or maybe I just can't find it).
I do appreciate the work you've done Mrebs, more specifically the spreadsheet. Where I do think you might be a little overoptimistic is something I mentioned before, the 90-180 day gap between signing a contract and first revenue generation from that contract.
This isn't a big setback, at worst, everything gets delayed by half a year..