03-13-2019, 01:33 AM
A few observations:
- The most important thing on the line this afternoon is the growth trajectory of the company.
- The closer 2019 revenue guidance is to $150M, the more explosive that growth trajectory is as that will reverberate through to 2020 and subsequent revenue estimates.
- It will also show the magnitude of undervaluation, at $150M revenue the company sells for less than 3x 2019 sales, at $100M it sells for 4x 2019 sales, still fairly cheap.
- Much of trajectory is already clear from the explosion in backlog ($147M at the end of 2017, nearly $700 at the end of Feb 2019).
- So the 2019 revenue guidance is actually more about the speed of conversion from backlog to revenues, do all these Artilium and iPass engineers speed up that process?
- Backlog itself is also interesting and we'll get that in neat monthly installments. It tells us something about the increased value of the platform after the acquisitions, the opportunities for cross selling, and to what extent the company can sell into iPass legacy enterprise segment, for instance.
In short, let the short-term price gyrations not distract from the longer-term developments. We have good visibility on the latter, due to the explosive rise in backlog. The shares will continue to go up on that.